Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,719$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(22.9 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,334.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 124.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52,334.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,409$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(0.16 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,322.0}{1 + 10^{-0.273 (t - 107.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,322.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,036$ on 2020-08-02

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $309,437$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{372,902.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 109.3)}}\) (asimptote \(372,902.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,190$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,852.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 141.6)}}\) (asimptote \(26,852.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,145$ on 2020-08-02

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $129,151$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(651 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{157,701.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 128.7)}}\) (asimptote \(157,701.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,868$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(25.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,340.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 122.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,340.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,397$ on 2020-08-02

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,911$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,122.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(69,122.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $457$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(59.4 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{426.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.4)}}\) (asimptote \(426.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,241$ on 2020-08-02

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,536$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,097.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 121.8)}}\) (asimptote \(48,097.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $147$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 107.6)}}\) (asimptote \(167.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,723$ on 2020-08-02

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $278,835$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316,185.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.2)}}\) (asimptote \(316,185.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,917$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(119 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,529.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,529.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,837$ on 2020-08-02

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $79,159$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(938 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,647.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 130.4)}}\) (asimptote \(101,647.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $421$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(8.61 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{700.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 114.7)}}\) (asimptote \(700.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,317$ on 2020-08-02

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,856$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,685.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(212,685.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,728$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,235.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,235.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,634$ on 2020-08-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Korea, South recovered 89%
Turkey recovered 87%
Pakistan recovered 77%
Sri Lanka recovered 69%
United Arab Emirates recovered 65%
Bahrain recovered 52%
Kuwait recovered 48%
Azerbaijan recovered 44%
Saudi Arabia recovered 43%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 38%

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,389$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(138.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,320.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 20.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,320.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $301$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(105.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(281.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $808$ on 2020-08-02

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $279,699$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,567.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(294,567.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,976$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(438 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,487.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 81.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,487.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,146$ on 2020-08-02

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,823$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(357 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,920.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 77.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,920.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.83 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(142.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 8.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $298$ on 2020-08-02

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,999$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,845.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 95.8)}}\) (asimptote \(59,845.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $351$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(76.3 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{327.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(327.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,033$ on 2020-08-02