Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $36,719$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(22.9 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,334.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 124.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52,334.2\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,409$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(0.16 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,322.0}{1 + 10^{-0.273 (t - 107.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,322.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,036$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $309,437$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{372,902.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 109.3)}}\) (asimptote \(372,902.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17,190$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,852.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 141.6)}}\) (asimptote \(26,852.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,145$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $129,151$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(651 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{157,701.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 128.7)}}\) (asimptote \(157,701.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,868$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(25.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,340.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 122.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,340.3\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,397$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $67,911$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,122.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(69,122.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $457$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(59.4 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{426.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.4)}}\) (asimptote \(426.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,241$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,536$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,097.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 121.8)}}\) (asimptote \(48,097.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $147$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 107.6)}}\) (asimptote \(167.1\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,723$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $278,835$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316,185.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.2)}}\) (asimptote \(316,185.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,917$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(119 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,529.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,529.5\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,837$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $79,159$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(938 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,647.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 130.4)}}\) (asimptote \(101,647.3\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $421$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.61 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{700.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 114.7)}}\) (asimptote \(700.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,317$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $232,856$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,685.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(212,685.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,728$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,235.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,235.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,634$ on 2020-08-02